Why didn’t Apple release iPhone 5?
Not because I know something and you don’t but mostly because I think if you note some facts and observe some patterns you can get a fair understanding of why – Here’s my take
a. History – do you recall the cycle iPhone 3G -> 3Gs ->iPad-> iPhone 4 ->iPad2 -> 4s -> NewProduct/iPad3??-> iPhone5? so It’s naturally gotta be 4s before the 5 – so no surprises here
b. Makes business sense – When you are putting your money on building a super fast uber-cool processor and if you plan to get back your ROI and step into the profit zone you need to have it run for atleast a few years – In Apple’s case it’s two years. During this gestation period Apple would inject their new hardware into all their device line ups for as long and as fast as they could – iPod, iPhone and iPad – AppleTv? – Assuming that Apple had a mass production of A5 chips early this year and thanks to iPad2 they already have a stock pile of A5′s ready to get injected into the existing line up. So it’s only natural that they leverage this and upgrade the iPhone 4 to a 4s rather than a 5. iPhone 5 should be revolutionary – by that I mean it has to be a new design and upgraded both on the inside and the outside – mostly fall 2012? so in Feb 2012 may be we’ll see iPad2 refresh or an iPad3? from the looks of it iPad seems to have a life cycle of only a year before it gets a refresh
c. This is the time (of the year) for a major Software release and not a hardware release (look at history – infographic here ) one hardware release followed by a major software release – Smart approach – keep customers wanting for more, dangle the carrot, keep shareholders happy. This event was more for the attention of iOS 5 and iCloud and Siri (I have to include this as I already love it – Apple bought Siri for over $200 million)
d. No matter how Genius of a company you are it’s almost next to impossible to release something revolutionary every 12 months and still make profits like these blokes! unless, you can churn out both new hardware and software within a year – Even tougher for Apple in particular as they are both into hardware and software unlike other contenders that run on borrowed hardware (Android clones) – and Apple products are far superior (in terms of UX wise atleast) because the software naturally will work like a song on their own hardware. Code writers, Software engineers know exactly what they are dealing with and conversely hardware engineers know what they are building for because they have a software road map ahead.
They have it all figured out!! .. Now that I have figured this out let’s see how long can they keep me interested 
8 Comments
S
on Oct 05, 2011 03:31:31Very insightful and I completely agree – thank you for this blog. I am slightly (ok, overly) obsessed with odd numbers and it annoys me to no end to have another 4 and not the 5 most may have been expecting. I was more realistic and realized that the 5 would have to be as different from the 4 as the 4 was from the 3G, so we’d end up in a 3GS cycle, hence, the 4S.
I’m now wondering what my next best move would be, considering I definitely want the 5 when it is released (probably late next year as you predicted). I am currently out of contract, and if I upgrade now, I lock in for another two years (I think at eighteen months I’ll be able to upgrade at the lowest price again). That means that when the iPhone 5 is released, let’s say, November of next year, I’ll have to wait until May of the following year to get it at the upgrade price. I still have the 3G because of this damn logic! I just want my contract renewal date to coincide with the iPhone release date for once.
Do you have any suggestions? The speed of my 3G is slowly killing me (pun intended). I am considering upgrading to the 4 for $99.99 and then hanging on until the 5S in 2013. At least it will be an odd number … plus, I love the letter “S” (add another item to the list of obsessions).
I am over-thinking this – I know. But, I’m also thinking you’ll relate!
-S
admin
on Oct 05, 2011 08:35:19I can relate to your situation on the “sticking to the contract” front and it’s a total pain. In fact I sometimes wonder if the phone companies make more money than Apple! they have people tied to their service (shitty or not) for at least 3yrs to start with and then those upgrades that we want – all of our want phone rather than need phone perspective is making a lot of people happy
Coming back to the point – I was in same situation as you 2yrs ago..when I signed up for 3Gs and got stuck with it – worse I bought it in the middle of their product cycle (didn’t do analysis on how they release products) any who then came iPad and iPhone 4 now I would want those devices but it doesn’t make sense to spend so much again just to get the upgrade so this is what I did – I sold it!! just after iPhone 4 was announced and I recovered at least 80% of phones market value – luckily these products have good resale value even after a new release. So I topped up a little and bought a new phone (not iPhone though I was itching for a google phone then) but that released me from “not upgrading the phone because of contract” issue – now I always make sure that a) never get into a contract if possible b) buy a phone only when I have that kinda cash up front – I know that even though it pinches believe me it’s worth it because you can sell your phone whenever you want and make a decent % on ROI and then top up a bit (consider this usage fee) and get a new phone instantly without having to worry about contracts .. i seriously believe that those contracts have lot of components to it that we never use anyways this way hopefully one day we are contract fee – go “pay as you go” hopefully.. anyways these are my two cents .. hope it helps you in making your decision
Thanks for dropping by
Naveen
on Oct 05, 2011 08:44:17Hopefully not too long… As far as I know Apple set the expectaion low and produce more than what was set… This time it’s not the case and steve is gone and as I see their ride won’t be smooth anymore.. I am sure they will lead the industry for some time but they will face reality soon (from last 2 yrs they were un-real)
admin
on Oct 05, 2011 09:08:20I think Apple doesn’t set any expectations it’s consumers and media that usually do – I think Apple is very secretive about their products for the very same reasons “expectations” – Trust me expectations are something you cannot put a boundary on..so no matter how well you perform it’s never enough – I’m kinda curious too to see if Apple will have a smooth ride after Steve – this will tell he if he was just a genius with extraordinary market analysis or a genius genius with extraordinary market analysis and a great leader – from what I’ve read (no substantial evidence though) it is said that Steve had this coming for a long time and he trained Tim, Scott and the rest well on “Apple” strategy – only time will tell
Naveen
on Oct 05, 2011 09:24:25Yaa.. That’s right but they were always exceeding expectaions set by media/consumer..I watched yesterday’s keynote in full and I can clearly see its not even close to the previous events..4S is just an upgrade to barely match up with what’s in the market already..by the time 5 comes it will be old in industry…remember RIM..:p
admin
on Oct 05, 2011 20:47:36Well..it’s the same when iPad2 was released .. people said they were disappointed and it wouldn’t fly in the market et al but it broke all tablet sales records .. in fact 4s is a pretty decent hardware upgrade if you see and Siri is awesome! .. but I wouldn’t compare it with RIM .. no offense
Naveen
on Oct 06, 2011 15:00:47Lolzzz.. Every company will have a day..
Paul Thomsen
on Nov 04, 2011 19:26:15As a musician and technology fanatic, I can say Apple products changed my life for good, thank you Steve.
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